Closing the Gap Between Demand and Capacity in Naval Force Design
There is more demand for the Navy than the current force can meet. Today’s force is overused and as a result under-maintained.
Wargaming at the Edge of Reality: What Modern Conflict Now Demands
Wargaming is no longer a step removed from conflict. It is operating inside it.
Cybersecurity in 2027 and Beyond: Why Complexity Is the Real Challenge
Listen to this FOCUS: SPA Perspectives post here: 00:00 https://youtu.be/V9NYvd427yg?si=Itzehp_jrtnADnuR At WEST 2026, SPA Cyber Fellow Keegan Mills joined senior Navy and Marine Corps cyber leaders as a panelist for a discussion on “Future Cybersecurity Concepts 2027 and Beyond.” The conversation examined modernization priorities, risk management, and the accelerating pace of technological change. One reality […]
Beyond Manpower: Applying Pipeline Modeling to Emerging Defense Challenges
This is part 3 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published.Pipeline-based thinking applies far beyond manpower. Many defense processes—from manufacturing to maintenance to modernization—follow structured sequences where timing, capacity, and decision rules shape outcomes. This post builds on earlier discussions of manpower modeling […]
Inside the Model: How Data-Driven Manpower Tools Improve Decision Options
This is part 2 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published. Senior leaders work in an environment where decisions about force structure, training capacity, and personnel policy carry real consequences for readiness. Manpower production modeling offers a way to see how those decisions […]
How Manpower Production Modeling Strengthens Future Force Readiness
This is part 1 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published. Readiness depends on having the right personnel with the right skills at the right time. Yet achieving that readiness is not straightforward. Recruiting, training, assignment, retraining, advancement, and retention together form an […]
Reassessing Two Risky Assumptions in US Defense Planning
Seeing Bottlenecks Before They Become Readiness Gaps One of the key benefits of modeling is early identification of bottlenecks. These bottlenecks often appear in unexpected places. Examples include: Training courses that become chokepoints due to limited instructor availability Mid-career transitions that introduce delays into mission-critical roles Assignment processes that generate mismatches between qualifications and needs […]
Independent Decision Support in the Nuclear Enterprise
Brian Groft on the Value of Advisory and Assistance Services In a recent episode of NucleCast, Brian Groft, Technical Program Analyst at Systems Planning & Analysis (SPA), joined host Adam Lowther to discuss the essential role of Advisory and Assistance Services (A&AS) within the nuclear enterprise and the evolving mission of the Defense Threat Reduction […]
Modeling Risk as a System—How FORM Connects the Dots for Better Decision-Making
That lack of visibility becomes increasingly risky as mission demands evolve and timelines tighten. Manpower production modeling helps by mapping each stage of the pipeline, examining how individuals flow through it, and identifying where constraints influence readiness. Based on a paper by Tom Monroe, Ph.D., P.E., Marissa Miller, Ph.D., and Mario Beruvides, Ph.D., P.E. The […]
From Hazard Maps to Objective Paths — Reimagining Risk for Modern Program Managers
Based on a paper by Tom Monroe, Ph.D., P.E., Marissa Miller, Ph.D., and Mario Beruvides, Ph.D., P.E. Why It’s Time to Rethink the Way We Define Risk Imagine you’re driving to a destination on a foggy road. Instead of looking ahead, you focus on all the hazards around you and navigate with your rearview mirror. […]