Why Historical Context Matters in Strategic Competition
Digital wargaming is gaining momentum across defense and beyond.
Rethinking Maritime Prepositioning for Contested Environments
Listen to this article: 00:00 Mark Schouten, an analyst at SPA For decades, maritime prepositioning depended on a basic assumption: forces would be able to reach the ports they needed when conflict began. That assumption no longer holds. Discussions during the Maritime Prepositioning for the 21st Century panel at Modern Day Marine 2026 highlighted how […]
Closing the Gap Between Demand and Capacity in Naval Force Design
There is more demand for the Navy than the current force can meet. Today’s force is overused and as a result under-maintained.
Beyond Manpower: Applying Pipeline Modeling to Emerging Defense Challenges
This is part 3 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published.Pipeline-based thinking applies far beyond manpower. Many defense processes—from manufacturing to maintenance to modernization—follow structured sequences where timing, capacity, and decision rules shape outcomes. This post builds on earlier discussions of manpower modeling […]
Inside the Model: How Data-Driven Manpower Tools Improve Decision Options
This is part 2 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published. Senior leaders work in an environment where decisions about force structure, training capacity, and personnel policy carry real consequences for readiness. Manpower production modeling offers a way to see how those decisions […]
How Manpower Production Modeling Strengthens Future Force Readiness
This is part 1 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published. Readiness depends on having the right personnel with the right skills at the right time. Yet achieving that readiness is not straightforward. Recruiting, training, assignment, retraining, advancement, and retention together form an […]
Reassessing Two Risky Assumptions in US Defense Planning
Seeing Bottlenecks Before They Become Readiness Gaps One of the key benefits of modeling is early identification of bottlenecks. These bottlenecks often appear in unexpected places. Examples include: Training courses that become chokepoints due to limited instructor availability Mid-career transitions that introduce delays into mission-critical roles Assignment processes that generate mismatches between qualifications and needs […]
Modeling Risk as a System—How FORM Connects the Dots for Better Decision-Making
That lack of visibility becomes increasingly risky as mission demands evolve and timelines tighten. Manpower production modeling helps by mapping each stage of the pipeline, examining how individuals flow through it, and identifying where constraints influence readiness. Based on a paper by Tom Monroe, Ph.D., P.E., Marissa Miller, Ph.D., and Mario Beruvides, Ph.D., P.E. The […]
From Hazard Maps to Objective Paths — Reimagining Risk for Modern Program Managers
Based on a paper by Tom Monroe, Ph.D., P.E., Marissa Miller, Ph.D., and Mario Beruvides, Ph.D., P.E. Why It’s Time to Rethink the Way We Define Risk Imagine you’re driving to a destination on a foggy road. Instead of looking ahead, you focus on all the hazards around you and navigate with your rearview mirror. […]
Global Reflections: Insights from the Inaugural Wargaming Conference in Poland
On October 14-15, 2025, I was privileged to attend the inaugural conference on “Wargaming as an Analytical and Training Tool in Military and Civilian Environment,” held at the General Tadeusz Kościuszko Military University of Land Forces (AWL) in Wrocław, Poland. In some ways, the genesis of the conference itself, along with my attendance, was the […]