Wargaming at the Edge of Reality: What Modern Conflict Now Demands
Wargaming is no longer a step removed from conflict. It is operating inside it.
Beyond Manpower: Applying Pipeline Modeling to Emerging Defense Challenges
This is part 3 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published.Pipeline-based thinking applies far beyond manpower. Many defense processes—from manufacturing to maintenance to modernization—follow structured sequences where timing, capacity, and decision rules shape outcomes. This post builds on earlier discussions of manpower modeling […]
Inside the Model: How Data-Driven Manpower Tools Improve Decision Options
This is part 2 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published. Senior leaders work in an environment where decisions about force structure, training capacity, and personnel policy carry real consequences for readiness. Manpower production modeling offers a way to see how those decisions […]
How Manpower Production Modeling Strengthens Future Force Readiness
This is part 1 of a 3-part series. Read the previous posts here and subscribe to get the final post when it’s published. Readiness depends on having the right personnel with the right skills at the right time. Yet achieving that readiness is not straightforward. Recruiting, training, assignment, retraining, advancement, and retention together form an […]
Reassessing Two Risky Assumptions in US Defense Planning
Seeing Bottlenecks Before They Become Readiness Gaps One of the key benefits of modeling is early identification of bottlenecks. These bottlenecks often appear in unexpected places. Examples include: Training courses that become chokepoints due to limited instructor availability Mid-career transitions that introduce delays into mission-critical roles Assignment processes that generate mismatches between qualifications and needs […]
Modeling Risk as a System—How FORM Connects the Dots for Better Decision-Making
That lack of visibility becomes increasingly risky as mission demands evolve and timelines tighten. Manpower production modeling helps by mapping each stage of the pipeline, examining how individuals flow through it, and identifying where constraints influence readiness. Based on a paper by Tom Monroe, Ph.D., P.E., Marissa Miller, Ph.D., and Mario Beruvides, Ph.D., P.E. The […]
From Hazard Maps to Objective Paths — Reimagining Risk for Modern Program Managers
Based on a paper by Tom Monroe, Ph.D., P.E., Marissa Miller, Ph.D., and Mario Beruvides, Ph.D., P.E. Why It’s Time to Rethink the Way We Define Risk Imagine you’re driving to a destination on a foggy road. Instead of looking ahead, you focus on all the hazards around you and navigate with your rearview mirror. […]
From Viable to Defendable: Designing Programs That Deliver
In defense acquisition, selecting the best technical solution is not enough. Success depends on how well that choice holds up under scrutiny—from oversight bodies, Congress, and operational users alike—while ensuring the program performs as intended. That’s where the traditional approach to Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) falls short. In this post, I’ll outline a methodology that […]
Is it Possible the United States and China Are Already at War?
Emilyn Tuomala, a program analyst at Systems Planning & Analysis, recently authored an article for Disruptive By Design, a column in SIGNAL Magazine featuring disruptive technologies, issues, ideas, or insights related to national security, defense, intelligence, and homeland security. Tuomala is a member of the Northern Virginia Chapter of AFCEA and previously served as a […]
Shaping the Future of Force Design and Structure in an Era of Rapid Technological Change
In an age where technology evolves at a breakneck pace, military strategies must adapt to maintain relevance and effectiveness. The Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030 (FD2030) initiative represents a bold step forward—not just in acquiring cutting-edge technologies but in creating an integrated, systems-oriented approach to warfare. These principles of distributed operations, integrated systems, and technological […]