Preparing for What's Next: Mission Assurance in an Evolving Counter-UAS Environment

Preparing for What’s Next: Mission Assurance in an Evolving Counter-UAS Environment

September 8, 2026

SPA Staff

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Operation SpiderWeb captured headlines around the world, but the operation itself was only one chapter in a much larger story. For years, unmanned systems have grown more capable, more accessible, and more adaptable, steadily changing how militaries think about mission assurance.

Jeff Braun, Senior Director of Emerging Markets at SPA, asserts that unmanned systems are now generating strategic effects around the world, moving beyond being simply localized battlefield novelties. Drawing on observations from the conflict in Ukraine, he argues that the defense community must prepare now to defend not only tactical but also strategic assets against this rapidly evolving threat. To do so effectively, organizations must prepare not only for today’s threats, but also for how adversaries will continue to adapt and evolve their technology and tactics.

The conflict in Ukraine offers a clear view of that evolution. What began with localized, frontline strikes quickly expanded into coordinated attacks using unmanned aircraft and surface vessels. Drone operations pushed deeper into contested territory, eventually contributing to Russia repositioning elements of its Black Sea Fleet. Operation SpiderWeb became another step in that progression, demonstrating how quickly new concepts can emerge as technology becomes more accessible and tactics continue to evolve.

Viewed collectively, these operations illustrate a broader shift. Rather than isolated events, they point toward what may ultimately be viewed as a turning point in how wars are fought and how strategic planners think about future conflict. Deep-strike capabilities are no longer the exclusive domain of great powers; they have become accessible to virtually any nation-state and even some terrorist organizations.

Planning Beyond the Last Attack

Jeff encourages organizations to look beyond the last successful attack. Group 3 unmanned aircraft increasingly resemble traditional cruise missiles in both appearance and employment. At the same time, commercially available technologies continue lowering barriers to entry, giving more actors access to capabilities that were once reserved for nation-state militaries. New combinations of platforms, payloads, and tactics continue to emerge through operational use.

“This is not just a technology problem. It’s a problem of the imagination.”

Jeff Braun, SPA Senior Director of Emerging Markets

Organizations must consider how new capabilities could be adapted, combined, and employed before they appear in operational use.

Mission Assurance Begins with Understanding the Threat

That perspective shapes SPA’s Full Lifecycle Counter-UAS Solution.

Effective mission assurance starts with understanding how adversaries are changing the technologies and tactics they employ. Through continuous assessment of emerging technologies, operational trends, and representative systems, SPA helps clients identify how the operating environment is shifting and what those changes mean for mission planning.

Those insights then inform digital mission engineering and acquisition and deployment planning, helping organizations identify vulnerabilities early, select the right systems for their operating environments, and develop effective layered defenses. Digital twins, operational red teaming, and live-flight testing create realistic environments to validate concepts of operation and uncover potential gaps before they become operational risks. SPA SwarmInsight™ analyzes operational test data to identify capability gaps, assess performance, and turn flight-test results into actionable insights. SPA AthenaSight™ digital wargaming environment supports system selection, mission planning, and the development of effective layered defenses.

The same philosophy guides the SPA Red Six Mission Assurance Program (MAP), which combines continuous threat monitoring, site vulnerability assessments, threat emulation, modeling and simulation, and representative systems to help organizations evaluate emerging challenges before they become operational realities.

Turning Analysis into Readiness

Understanding the threat is only the first step.

Organizations also need opportunities to evaluate how their people, systems, and defenses perform under realistic conditions.

The Red Six MAP expands that analysis into real-world threat emulation and operational testing. Red Six MAP pilots bring advanced tactics and representative UAS threats directly to operational environments to stress-test defenses and identify vulnerabilities. The program conducts red-team UAS flight testing across Group 1-3 platforms, including jet-powered aircraft and coordinated heterogeneous swarms. Platforms such as SPA’s Banzai provide representative cruise missile threats for repeatable testing and evaluation.

Looking Ahead

As emerging technologies continue to evolve, so will the ways adversaries employ them. Preparing for the next conflict requires looking beyond today’s headlines and anticipating how new capabilities may be combined, adapted, and deployed.

That forward-looking mindset reflects SPA’s approach to mission assurance. SPA brings together threat-informed analysis, mission engineering, operational testing, and representative systems to help clients strengthen layered defenses and prepare for the challenges ahead.

Explore SPA’s Counter-UAS Solutions
Learn how SPA applies threat-informed analysis, mission engineering, operational testing, and representative systems to help clients strengthen mission assurance and stay ahead of evolving threats.

Featured Expert:

Jeff Braun is SPA’s Senior Director of Emerging Markets and has 15 years of experience in the defense realm. He advises senior government leadership on the intersection of strategy, technology, and operational concepts, with a focus on counter-unmanned systems. His experience includes technical, advisory, and leadership roles across National Government Labs, the Joint Staff, and SPA, including engineering and program leadership for weapons systems.